We’re big fans of data at RPG, and one of the things we really enjoy is getting a chance to utilize data tools that offer a chance to peer into the future.
Recently, Massachusetts General, Harvard Medical School, Georgia Tech and Boston Medical Center joined forces to create a COVID-19 simulator that allows users to look at both the national and state-level data for the United States and see what impact lockdown, current social distancing and minimal measures might have on infection rates.
For example, I tested two strategies: Social Distancing through May with Minimal Restrictions for the Summer vs. Absurdly Draconian Lockdowns until Labor Day. The results were pretty striking:
With the lockdown measures in place (based on real-world data through April 30th), we were looking at a probable national death toll of just over 100,000 people.
But by easing restrictions? The model suggests we’d be just around 832,000 deaths by the end of August. Yikes!
If you haven’t played with this tool yet, give it a shot. I spent a lot of time trying to optimize strategies state by state, and I was relieved to discover that we can potentially ease restrictions in St. Louis much sooner than in other states without much of a probable rise in infections or deaths.
(And if you’d rather try your hand at being an infectious disease, there’s always the simulation game Plague, Inc, which has actually helped out in the fight against COVID-19 in the real world as the developer has donated a quarter of a million dollars to CEPI and the WHO.)